<div class="header-image"></div> <table class="table-header"> <thead> <tr> <th colspan="2"></th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>2025-12-20</td> <td style="text-align: right;"><a href="About.md" class="internal-link">About</a></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> # AI and the Collapsing Economy  There will soon come a time when the majority of people are simply out of work. Jobs will be getting done, goods and services will be produced, but no one will be able to pay for it. This has been a longstanding fear that's never come to pass. Ever since the industrial revolution, the loss of jobs through automation has been the source of fear-mongering that would have civilization frozen in a technological paralysis. The opposite has always been true, however: *More* jobs, not less, have always been the result of this sort of progress. The job market always shifted in these scenarios. Some jobs were lost, yes, but many more, particularly in manufacturing, were created. Throughout history, technological progress has consistently delivered net economic growth and higher living standards, even amid short-term disruptions, by expanding industries, boosting productivity, and opening entirely new fields of human endeavour. I would contend, however, that the coming change is markedly different than anything that's happened in the past. I can't think of *any* job emerging from this technological shift that can't be done by AI powered robots, including the maintenance and upgrading of the robots themselves. I can remember watching Star Trek when I was young, and being fascinated by the technology. Of course the holodecks were of particular interest, but what really made me think about the world it depicted to the audience was the replicators.  Star Trek presented a world without money. People were free to do, or not do, whatever they liked, so long as they didn't interfere with others. There were no "jobs" like we have them today. There were vocations, and many people studied and worked to better themselves and society. But without having to worry about, or struggle for, basic necessities, the need for money just wasn't there. People worked for other reasons. Replicators are a fantasy. I don't think we will ever have something like what is described in Star Trek. But we do have something else: AI and robotics. The real basic necessity I was speaking about in regards to replicators is food. And farms could not only be entirely automated, but vastly more efficient than they are now (which are even now vastly more efficient than they were a century ago).  *From episode 8 of the podcast The Last Invention: The Accelerationists* These are the replicators. It's not that anyone will be able to just speak into a computer and a martini will appear. But food will be so plentiful that it will just be available to everyone, and no one will have to do any work to get it. From fields of crops, harvest to transport, and delivery to your doorstep, all will be done without involving humans at all. Manufacturing and warehouses are [already largely automated](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/technology/inside-amazons-plans-to-replace-workers-with-robots.html), with the need for human workers steadily declining. And the need for human drivers is quickly diminishing too, with companies like [Waymo](https://waymo.com/), [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/robotaxi) and [Zoox](https://zoox.com/) taking the lead in the US by offering taxi services, along with several others in China. There is every reason to think that these services will continue in other countries the world over. Trucking companies I'm sure will be next. In restaurants, there are already [robot servers delivering food]((https://www.tiktok.com/@miabellaceo/video/7032987655449218309)) to tables. Soon it will be more cost effective to buy robots than to employ waiters. These industries alone make up about 25% of the total workforce *in all developed nations*. And if you include agriculture, that goes up to almost 30%. And I don't think it's an overstatement to say that in the next ten years most people in these industries will be out of work. That's 30% of the economy simply ceasing to be. And there's huge swathes of the tertiary sector that I haven't mentioned. Office and clerical roles, IT, law, and more, not to mention nursing, and others in the health industry. All these will soon be done more efficiently, and with better precision, by a combination of AI and robotics. Even the AI and robotics divisions of IT will be better suited to AI and robotics than to humans. Capitalism will collapse in this scenario. It simply doesn't work. But countries that have already adopted communism and survived (I'm of course speaking about China here), will have a massive advantage. They already have the mechanism in place to overcome this economic shift. While already the entire western developed world struggles to deal with unemployment, increased homelessness and vagrancy, China already has a system in place that pays people in goods and services by the government, regardless of employment status. As long as production continues, the people are fed. It doesn't matter who, or what, actually does the producing. I'm not blind to the fact that people in the west are allergic to communism. And there's very good reason for this. In fact every example of a totalitarian state, followed soon after by a collapsing economy under a communist regime, stands as its own good reason. And my example of China as a "success" is probably not a reassuring one. But there will come a time when the west will have no choice but to make adjustments to its economic model. In my mind, UBI is an obvious step to take. I've said before that, as workers get replaced, [a "robot tax" can be introduced](../Blog/2025-10-26%20AI%20Robotics%20and%20Visions%20of%20the%20Future.md) as companies begin to replace their workforces en masse. That tax could directly fund UBI. This will take forward-thinking leaders--something in very short supply these days. But imagine the alternative for a moment. If 30% of the public no longer works, that's ~30% less in revenue in taxes for governments, and more to pay out as these people will now be seeking government funded Employment Insurance and welfare benefits. The amount of debt our governments owe will not decrease, however. Interest payments will still be expected. All our governments are running deficits at this point. If we cannot continue to even cover a fraction of the interest owed, bankruptcy is inevitable. Everyone loses, including companies like Amazon, who are leading the way, replacing workers with robots. In other words, it's in Amazon's best interest to pay a "robot tax" just so that people can continue to buy their shit, and keep the government afloat. This has to happen. As long as there's *something* in place that can absorb the economic hit, the model can adjust and evolve over time. But if we continue to ignore the inevitable, I'm afraid the west will collapse entirely.